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Mesoscale Discussion 1055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Northern Missouri...southeast Iowa...and northwest
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062045Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An ongoing squall line and developing T-storms along a
cold front will continue to pose an isolated hail/wind risk through
the early evening hours. This threat will remain limited given the
marginal kinematic environment.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized squall line continues to move from
southern IA into northern MO. While this line has struggled to
intensify substantially (likely due to meager 20-30 knot effective
bulk shear values and a weak line-normal shear co*ponent), the
increase in MLCAPE through the afternoon has allowed this line to
persist with occasional intense updrafts (noted in GOES IR imagery
and upticks in vertically integrated ice). Some outflow
consolidation is noted in regional velocity data, suggesting that
damaging, to perhaps severe, winds remain possible in addition to
isolated large hail.

To the east, cells are developing along a diffuse cold frontal zone
across eastern IA into northwest IL. Although this region has warmed
sufficiently for MLCAPE values to increase to near 1000 J/kg,
upper-level flow diminishes with eastward extent, resulting in a
modest kinematic environment. Additionally, storm motions along the
boundary may favor a tendency for destructive storm interactions
with time that will modulate a more substantial severe threat.
Nonetheless, cold temperatures aloft and minimal inhibition will
support periodic intense updrafts that may be capable of large hail
and sporadic strong winds. This activity will likely persist into
the early evening, but given the limited nature of the kinematic
environment a watch is not anticipated.

..Moore/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39759425 40009489 40659478 40989319 41579193 41929091
            42268991 42268892 41608872 40748894 40308943 39849117
            39739229 39759425