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Mesoscale Discussion 1052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...and the
western OK Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061920Z - 062145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing within the Rockies will intensify
as they move into the central/southern High Plains. These storms
will initially pose a threat for strong to severe winds with an
increasing hail threat through the late afternoon and evening. A
watch may be needed in the co*ing hours to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convective showers have developed across much
of the central Rockies and along the CO Front Range within the
upslope flow regime over the past 1-2 hours. A few of these showers
have deepened sufficiently to support a few lightning strikes,
indicative of increasing buoyancy and diminishing inhibition.
Mesoanalysis estimates suggests that some MLCIN remains in place and
will limit the potential for robust convective in the near term.
However, continued daytime heating and weak low-level moisture
influx from the southeast will diminish any lingering weakness in
MLCAPE profiles by late afternoon. As this occurs, thunderstorms
will likely intensify into a mixture of discrete supercells and
perhaps one or two clusters given the steep low-level lapse rates
and potential for early storms to produce strong outflows. Storms
will meander east into richer boundary-layer moisture through the
late afternoon and evening hours. The improving CAPE profiles with
eastward extent will help support an increasing hail threat given
40-50 knot effective shear values and elongated hodographs. Trends
in this activity will be monitored in the co*ing hours and a watch
may be needed if/when a substantial severe threat beco*es apparent.

..Moore/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   39490265 39340175 38740119 37460129 36590146 36450171
            36440304 36850386 37830430 38880403 39470343 39490265