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Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061720Z - 061915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated thunderstorm developing along a surface cold
front in northern Nebraska is likely the precursor to additional
convection by early to mid afternoon. Isolated storms developing
across the region may pose a severe hail/wind risk, but will likely
remain too isolated to warrant a watch issuance for the early
afternoon. The potential for a more robust/widespread severe will
likely emerge during the late afternoon/evening hours.

DISCUSSION...c*nvective initiation is noted along a surface cold
front in the vicinity of Holt county, NE. While this activity
currently is very disorganized, it signals that diurnal
destabilization is now sufficient to support convection across the
region. Latest mesoanalysis estimates indicate that MLCAPE has
increased to 500-1000 J/kg over the past 1-2 hours with minimal
inhibition across north-central NE. Further destabilization is
expected as temperatures continue to warm under mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. This will help intensify ongoing convection as
it drifts to the east/southeast. Additional hints of destabilization
are noted across western NE where a couple of regions of growing
cumulus are noted. GOES Day Cloud Phase products hint at substantial
vertical development with some glaciation, suggesting convective
initiation is possible in these regions within the next couple of
hours. 

As cells develop and intensify through the early afternoon, they
will more efficiently utilize the strong mid and upper-level flow
sampled by the 12 UTC LBF sounding (and hinted at in RAP forecast
soundings and mesoanlysis shear estimates). Consequently, storm
organization is probable and may support a few strong to severe
cells during the early to mid afternoon hours. The coverage of these
cells will likely remain very isolated given the weak/localized
forcing for ascent, and will likely preclude the need for a watch. A
more organized/widespread severe threat is expected later this
afternoon/evening as storms propagate along the frontal boundary
into the region from the northwest. This potential will likely be
addressed at a later time.

..Moore/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON   42620291 42900244 42830045 42979886 42729797 42059743
            41299743 40969781 40799861 40670033 41200167 41730225
            42300282 42620291