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Mesoscale Discussion 1048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern GA and much of FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061658Z - 061930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe hail and damaging winds may occur as thunderstorms
develop through the afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak mid-level
wave over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and north FL. This feature
is expected to continue moving slowly eastward through the
afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly winds are
present to the east of this disturbance over much of the FL
Peninsula and southern GA. Even though low-level flow will remain
weak, gradually strengthening winds above 4 km AGL are supporting
35-45 kt of deep-layer shear per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Rich
low-level moisture is also in place across these regions. Diurnal
heating of this moist airmass has already aided in the development
of around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and upwards of 2500-3000 J/kg may
ultimately develop by peak afternoon heating.

Thunderstorms have begun to develop along both sea breezes early
this afternoon, and expectations are for additional convective
development over inland portions of southern GA, north FL, and much
of the FL Peninsula over the next few hours. The sufficiently strong
deep-layer shear should aid in updraft organization, with the
enhanced mid/upper-level flow also allowing for some anvil-level
venting. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores, as
mid-level temperatures are seasonably cool (around -8 to -10 C at
500 mb). Damaging downdraft winds may also occur as low-level lapse
rates continue to gradually steepen with daytime heating. The
overall severe threat still appears rather isolated this afternoon,
and watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29988345 30278410 30518435 30968378 31398323 31608282
            31848185 31698151 31188131 30858141 30558143 30138133
            29618116 29118090 28518052 28218055 27828038 26818000
            26238003 26388083 27208150 28808260 29988345