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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS VICINITY TO THE
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday
across parts of the southern High Plains and from the Ozarks
vicinity into the Mid-South.

...Ozarks Vicinity to the Mid-South...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will track eastward from the central
Plains early Wednesday to the Ohio valley by evening, and then the
central Appalachians overnight. A surface low develop eastward from
MO/IL to southwest PA by evening, with a trailing weak cold front
sagging south across the OK/MO/IL and the lower OH Valley. Clusters
of thunderstorms or a well-organized MCS may be ongoing Wednesday
morning across parts of southeast KS/eastern OK or southern MO/AR.
There is some potential thunderstorms could reintensify as they
track east/southeastward through the day into the Mid-South where a
very moist airmass will be in place amid strengthening midlevel
west/northwesterly flow. However, it is unclear how much
destabilization will occur as forecast guidance depicts quite a bit
of rain and cloud cover. The overall pattern will generally support
some severe potential if stronger destabilization can occur,
necessitating Marginal risk probabilities.

...Southern High Plains Vicinity...

A post-frontal upslope flow regime will maintain mid-50s to mid-60s
dewpoints across northeast NM/southeast CO into the OK/TX
Panhandles, with near 70 dewpoints further east into
central/southern OK. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop near
the higher terrain of NM/CO in this upslope regime. Steep lapse
rates and strong heating will support strong destabilization. While
deep-layer flow will be weak, easterly low-level flow beneath
mid/upper level westerlies will result in 30-40 kt effective shear
magnitudes favorable for supercells. Sporadic large hail and strong
outflow gusts will be possible. Capping may initially limit eastward
extent of the severe threat, but guidance suggest a cluster of
storms may develop eastward overnight across parts of the TX
Panhandles into southern OK. If this occurs, some threat for
damaging gusts could acco*pany this activity.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2022