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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS TO
WESTERN KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central High Plains and from eastern Arkansas into
western Kentucky. Wind and hail are the primary risks.

...Northern and Central High Plains...

Mid-level short-wave trough has progressed into eastern Oregon early
this morning. This feature is forecast to eject across the northern
Rockies and flatten the ridge over WY during the afternoon. Latest
guidance suggests a corridor of 45-50kt winds at 500mb will
translate into the northern High Plains coincident with afternoon
convection. It appears convective initiation should occur across the
higher terrain along the MT/WY border by 18-19z, then spread toward
the plains where isolated supercells should ultimately evolve within
a more moist/buoyant air mass. This activity should propagate
southeast across the Black Hills region into northwest NE during the
evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threat,
though a brief tornado can not be ruled out.

Farther south, considerable amount of convection may ultimately form
over the mountains of CO during the afternoon and propagate toward
lower elevation where a weak surface boundary could serve to enhance
storm-scale organization near the KS border. Ample shear/buoyancy
will exist across this region for supercells, and hail/wind will be
the primary concerns.

...Eastern Arkansas to western Kentucky...

With ridging holding across the Rockies, northwesterly flow across
the Plains has proven favorable for nocturnal MCSs that propagate
southeast during the overnight hours toward the lower MS Valley.
This is occurring again this morning with multiple thunderstorm
clusters growing upscale over southern KS/northern OK. This activity
is supported by a weak short-wave trough that will shift into the
Ozarks by sunrise then into the lower OH/western TN Valley region by
07/00z. MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period along
the nose of the LLJ across southwestern MO into northeast
OK/northwest AR. Boundary-layer heating ahead of this activity
should aid destabilization such that convection could intensify
during the day posing some risk for damaging winds and perhaps some
hail.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/06/2022