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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Significant severe thunderstorms producing very large hail, intense
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of
Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska from late afternoon through tonight.

...Kansas/Nebraska/Oklahoma...
A semi-organized MCS continues southeastward at midday across
eastern/southeast Oklahoma. Episodic pulse-type severe cores may
persist on its western flank for a time this afternoon while it
otherwise spreads toward the Ozark Plateau and ArkLaTex vicinity.
Isolated severe hail on its western flank is the most probable risk,
but some diurnally renewed damaging wind potential is also plausible
downstream.

To the west of this MCS and near/west of its related outflow, a very
unstable environment will evolve this afternoon across the High
Plains including western Nebraska and western/southern Kansas into
Oklahoma. 12z upper-air data featured semi-cool mid-level thermal
profiles for early June as noted from Dodge City/North Platte
observed soundings with 500 mb temperatures around -12C to -13C,
although a notable capping inversion was noted to the southwest (12z
Amarillo sounding around 14C at 700 mb). Related High Plains
elevated mixed layer plume will persist and modestly advect/recover
eastward today on the western fringes of the late-night and early
morning MCS now over eastern Oklahoma. This will be atop mid/upper
60s F surface dewpoints, which will contribute to ample buoyancy
with upwards of 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE in the aforementioned corridor.

Storms are most likely to initially develop near the front across
Nebraska this afternoon, with deep convective initiation in/around
peak heating a bit more uncertain (but still very plausible) across
western/south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma in vicinity of
the outflow boundary and lee trough/dryline vicinity. Multiple
sub-regional corridors of several intense supercells can be expected
with initial development. This includes potential for very large
hail given the lapse rates/buoyancy reservoir and moderate
deep-layer shear, which will be accentuated by relatively strong
west/northwesterly high-level winds. A couple of tornadoes are
possible as well.

Consolidating cold pools will likely yield upscale growth into a
maturing MCS towards south-central Nebraska and central Kansas
during the evening. The overall intensity/coverage of the severe
wind threat with this MCS will be modulated by whether a separate
MCS will be simultaneously developing/ongoing in far southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma. Although there are timing/spatial
uncertainties, aggregate meteorological scenario suggests a
relatively high net potential/probability of large hail and
widespread damaging winds this evening into the overnight across
parts of southern Kansas and Oklahoma.

A Moderate Risk upgrade could still be warranted later today pending
greater confidence in a confined corridor of intense storm
development including higher-end wind potential this evening into
the overnight.

...Interior Northwest/northern Great Basin...
Within the left exit region of an intense upper jet centered on
northern California and southern Oregon, scattered thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon from eastern Oregon across Idaho into a
portion of western Montana, and in a more isolated sense across
northern Nevada/Utah. Elongated, straight-line hodographs will
encourage a few splitting supercells. However, buoyancy will likely
remain weak with moderate mid-level lapse rates and below-normal
surface temperatures. This suggests that isolated severe hail will
be the primary hazard (especially across northern parts of the
region), with locally strong wind gusts also a viable risk.

..Guyer/Moore.. 06/05/2022