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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Monday from parts of
the northern/central Plains toward the Ozarks, Mid-South, and
Midwest. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main hazards
expected with this activity.

...Portions of the Northern/Central Plains...
Quasi-zonal flow is forecast to persist over much of the Rockies and
High Plains through the period. Still, increasing mid/upper-level
winds associated with a jet will likely overspread parts of the
northern/central High Plains by Monday afternoon. 40-50+ kt of
deep-layer shear and long/straight hodographs aloft will likely
favor supercells. Low-level moisture should remain fairly modest
across these areas owing to prior convection and related outflow
boundaries shunting rich low-level moisture mainly into the southern
Plains. Still, at least weak instability is forecast to develop in a
narrow corridor from parts of northern WY into SD/NE/KS by late
Monday afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. Modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates should also overspread this region through the
day. 12 hr** members are in remarkably good agreement that multiple
supercells with robust mid-level UH will develop and spread
southeastward through Monday evening/night while posing a threat for
both large hail and severe wind gusts. Have expanded the Slight Risk
from southeastern CO/western KS northward to enco*pass parts of the
northern/central Plains to account for this supercell potential in a
fairly narrow corridor.

Farther south across the central High Plains of eastern CO and
vicinity, modest low-level upslope flow should eventually encourage
isolated to scattered convection to develop and spread eastward.
There is uncertainty regarding how many intense thunderstorms will
develop in this area, but weak to moderate instability and strong
deep-layer shear will conditionally support a threat for large hail
and damaging winds with any supercells or multicells that can
develop. One or more small bowing clusters may ultimately develop
across KS Monday evening/night and pose a continued threat for
severe/damaging wind gusts.

...Ozarks into the Mid-South and Midwest...
There will likely be an expansive, remnant MCS ongoing at the start
of the period Monday morning across parts of the Ozarks. As an MCV
and associated mid-level shortwave trough spread eastward across the
Mid-South into the Midwest through the day, additional convective
development may occur. Mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly
strong, but 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should be sufficient for
modest thunderstorm organization. As diurnal heating occurs and
instability gradually increases, multicells capable of producing
mainly strong to damaging winds are forecast to spread
east-northeastward across these regions through Monday evening
before weakening. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind from
parts of the Southeast to the Midwest to account for probable areas
of multicell development through the late afternoon. There was not
enough confidence in a more focused corridor of severe potential to
include greater severe wind probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 06/05/2022