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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Monday into
Monday night from parts of north-central Texas to the Mid-South and
vicinity. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes all appear possible.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow will be in place across the western and
central CONUS early Monday. A lead shortwave trough embedded within
this flow is expected to move from the Upper Midwest into Quebec
while another drops through the Pacific Northwest. Heights will
increase across the Plains in between these two shortwaves with the
stronger westerlies shifting northward. 

At the surface, the primary low attendant to the lead shortwave will
move into Quebec while the northern portion of an associated front
remains progressive as it moves eastward/northeastward across the
Upper Great Lakes region and OH Valley. Farther south, the front
will beco*e less progressive and more stationary across AR.

...Mid-South across the Arklatex into northeast TX...
Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible across the region
throughout the day, with the area potentially under the influence of
modest height rises. As such, the overall severe risk across the
region will depend largely on the any surface boundaries that can
act to influence convective initiation.

The cold front will likely remain north of eastern OK and much of
AR, but an outflow boundary from preceding overnight storms could be
in place across the region. Strong moisture advection throughout the
day will likely result in at least mid 60s dewpoints in the vicinity
of this boundary by the late afternoon. Warm mid-level temperatures
will be in place, but daytime heating coupled with the increasing
low-level moisture and mesoscale ascent along the boundary will
likely result in convective initiation. There are still questions
regarding the most probable location for initiation as well as the
overall storm coverage, but environmental conditions support
supercells with any robust/mature updrafts. All severe hazards are
possible with these supercells, including tornadoes. 

Farther west (across north-central/northeast TX), a sharpening
dryline and weak surface low may provide the ascent needed for
convective initiation. However, like areas farther northeast, warm
mid-level temperatures (and resultant capping) coupled with
negligible large-scale ascent introduce uncertainty regarding
initiation and coverage. Primary threat with any storms that do
develop in the afternoon/late afternoon would be very large hail.
Veered low-level flow suggests the tornado potential should be low.
However, surface winds are expected to back after 00Z, contributing
to some tornado potential with any storms that are able to persist
and/or mature during that time frame.  

...Mid MS/Lower OH Valley...
Generally elevated thunderstorms along/north of the cold front may
be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning over parts of
MO. This activity may pose an isolated hail/wind threat as it
spreads eastward across the mid MS Valley and into the Lower OH
Valley throughout the day, but instability should remain rather weak
ahead of it.

..Mosier.. 04/10/2022