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Mesoscale Discussion 1033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska into northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307...

Valid 050019Z - 050145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar data continues to show splitting
supercells capable of large hail and locally severe gusts across
parts of southern Nebraska this evening, aided by generally
long/straight hodographs and 35-45 kt 0-6 km bulk shear per OAX VWP
data. As this activity continues to move slowly southward, the risk
of large hail up to 2 inches in diameter will be the main threat in
the near term. With time, there may be some tendency for convection
to grow upscale as outflow spreads southward into a moist/well-mixed
boundary layer characterized by lower 60s dewpoints and steep
low-level lapse rates. While sporadic large hail will remain a
concern, the risk of severe gusts up to 70 mph will increase with
southward extent -- especially with any upscale-grown storm
clusters.

Eventually, convection should spread southward into northern KS
where lower/middle 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
are contributing to a strongly unstable airmass. As this occurs in
conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet, further upscale
growth will be possible and additional watch issuance may eventually
be needed.

..Weinman.. 06/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...to*...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40940055 41369939 41729712 41689644 41399626 40519624
            39829657 39659881 39780002 40140043 40490060 40940055