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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Great
Plains to the Texas Panhandle, mainly in the late afternoon and
evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are
possible.

...Central Great Plains...
In the wake of an MCV drifting east over east-central Kansas, 50s to
low 60s surface dew points persist from the southern High Plains
into western Kansas. As a plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates
sampled by the 12Z Denver sounding spread east, a swath of moderate
to large buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-3000 J/kg will develop by
around peak heating. Initially isolated thunderstorm development is
expected along the lee trough in eastern Colorado and along a
quasi-stationary front bisecting Nebraska during the late afternoon.
Convective coverage will likely increase in the early evening as
additional cells form along the front and towards the front/lee
trough intersection. 

While mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, a
west-northwesterly directional co*ponent and strong high-level winds
will aid in effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt. This will be adequate
for a few supercells capable of producing significant severe hail.
Consolidating convective outflows may eventually yield clusters
progressing southeast through tonight across western/central Kansas
with an attendant severe wind threat.

...Southern High Plains...
Decaying convection is ongoing from south-central Texas westward
towards the Pecos Valley. This activity should further decay through
midday. The dryline will sharpen this afternoon along the I-27
corridor to the Lower Pecos Valley. Convective development appears
most probable in the Big Bend region where terrain influence will
aid in sustaining updrafts. Guidance is quite varied in the degree
of convective development farther north along the dryline as a weak
upper trough passes across it this afternoon, but at least isolated
late-afternoon development is plausible.

...Northern New England...
Influenced by a modestly unstable air mass ahead of an upstream
shortwave trough/jet streak, a couple of strong or locally severe
low-topped storms could occur across the region this afternoon, with
the possible of localized wind damage and/or some hail. 

...Southeast Florida...
An already limited tornado/wind damage potential associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One (reference NHC) will continue to
steadily diminish this afternoon as the disturbance continues
east-northeastward with convection focusing across the nearby
Atlantic.

..Guyer/Moore.. 06/04/2022