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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes and gusty winds may acco*pany thunderstorms
across south Florida during the day. Scattered severe thunderstorms
are also possible across the central Plains late Saturday afternoon
and evening, with more isolated activity into the southern Great
Plains.

...South Florida...

An agitated low-pressure system is currently located over the
southeastern Gulf Basin, just west of the FL Keys. This system is
forecast to track across south FL later today and LLJ will increase
and focus along the southeast coast of FL. Latest radar data
suggests some of the stronger storms over the FL Straits have
exhibited rotation within a strengthening wind field. While lapse
rates and buoyancy will remain characteristically weak,
strengthening shear favors some threat for a few tornadoes and
locally damaging winds with more robust convection.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Mean ridging will hold across the central/southern Rockies through
the day1 period, although a few notable weak short-wave troughs are
expected to eject into the Plains where robust convection will
likely evolve in response to these features. Early this morning,
diurnally initiated convection, that evolved over southeastern
WY/Front Range of CO Friday afternoon, has propagated into the
central High Plains. This activity should migrate into eastern KS by
daybreak where left-over convective debris and weak showers are most
likely at the start of the period. Warm-frontal convection will also
be ongoing at the start of the period across northern NE. This
activity should drift into western IA and likely reinforce the warm
front that should remain draped near I80 across NE. Latest guidance
suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across the
central Plains and convective temperatures should be breached by
late afternoon, especially across western NE/northwest KS. Scattered
robust updrafts should evolve within northwesterly mid-level flow
then propagate southeast toward northern KS during the evening.
Large hail and damaging winds can be expected with supercells and
organized clusters.

More isolated convection is expected across the southern Great
Plains ahead of a very weak mid-level disturbance. This feature will
approach the TX border by late afternoon which should aid at least
isolated thunderstorms within an air mass that will be modestly
unstable and adequately sheared for organized updrafts. Have not
introduced a SLGT to this region but early-day storms may ultimately
provide a convective outflow across parts of TX that could serve as
the focus for potentially organized severe. If this beco*es more
clear in later outlooks this will be addressed accordingly.
Otherwise, hail/wind are possible with the strongest storms across
the Plains later Sunday.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/04/2022