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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms may develop over portions of the central
Plains vicinity on Sunday. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the
main hazards with these storms.

...Central Plains vicinity...

Zonal mid/upper flow will develop over much of the western states
into the Plains on Sunday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to
track from eastern OK/KS into the lower MS Valley early.
Thunderstorms associated with this feature may be ongoing Sunday
morning across eastern KS/OK. Steep lapse rates and abundant
boundary-layer moisture could support isolated strong gusts and/or
hail with this activity.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify later
in the afternoon across far eastern CO or western KS northward into
western NE and southern SD. A weak shortwave midlevel trough is
forecast to eject eastward from the central Rockies into the central
Plains, providing modest large-scale ascent. In the low levels,
southerly flow will transport mid 60s dewpoints as far north as
central NE, with low 60s into far southern SD. Steep midlevel lapse
rates atop this moist boundary-layer, and strong daytime heating
will support moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE values
in the 2500-3500 J/kg range expected. A dryline will extend
southward across western NE/KS, with a warm front extending west to
east near the NE/SD border into IA. Higher-based thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the dryline and along the
warm front by late afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain weak,
though some increase in midlevel flow is expected as the shortwave
trough ejects during the evening. Vertically veering wind profiles
will result in modest shear, with effective shear magnitudes around
25-35 kt anticipated. This will support supercells with an attendant
threat for large hail, some possibly greater than 2 inches in
diameter. Higher-based storms with steep low-level lapse rates and
weak low-level flow will favor strong outflow winds with this
initial activity as well. With time, some upscale development into
an east or southeastward propagating MCS is possible during the
evening/overnight, with a continued threat for damaging winds
spreading across parts of NE/KS. 

...Northern Rockies...

Moderate west/southwesterly flow and increasing midlevel moisture
will overspread parts of the northern Rockies on Sunday. Midlevel
lapse rates will be modestly steep due to cool midlevel
temperatures, and MLCAPE values may increase to around 250-500 J/kg.
Nearly unidirectional deep-layer flow, increasing with height will
result in elongated hodographs. A few strong storms could produce
gusty wind or small hail, but overall severe potential appears
limited at this time by weak forcing and relatively cool
boundary-layer conditions.

..Leitman.. 06/04/2022