Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Areas affected...Northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 031823Z - 032030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in intensity through the
remainder of the afternoon with a corresponding uptick in the
potential for damaging winds and possibly some hail. Trends will be
monitored, and a watch is possible if adequate coverage of severe
storms appears likely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly maturing across the
western Carolinas over the past hour after initiating along a
diffuse cold front and off the southern Appalachians. Additional
convection is noted along a sea-breeze boundary along the Carolina
coast. These storms have demonstrated loose organization over the
past 60 minutes with occasional strong updraft pulses. Recent RAP
forecast soundings, mesoanalysis fields, and KGSP VWP observations
all hint that regional deep-layer shear values are generally in the
20-30 knot range. This kinematic environment is meager, but
sufficient, for at least a few organized storms. Mid to upper-level
flow may improve through the late afternoon, but effective bulk
shear values will largely remain steady with only minor hodograph
elongation expected. 

Nonetheless, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over the Carolinas
is allowing for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s
and dewpoint depressions to increase to 20-30 F. Correspondingly,
low-level lapse rates have increased to near 8-9 C/km across the
region. Diurnal warming is also driving increasing surface-base
buoyancy, which should foster a gradual uptick in convective
intensity through the remainder of the afternoon. Morning RAOBs from
MHX and CHS sampled a mid-level dry layer that is supporting column
theta-e deficits between 20-30 K. These thermodynamic conditions are
conducive to strong to severe downburst winds, and the potential for
damaging winds should proportionally increase with convective
coverage. Sporadic hail is also possible with stronger initial
updraft pulses. However, thunderstorm coverage and longevity remain
somewhat uncertain given weak forcing for ascent and modest
kinematic fields. Trends in convective coverage will be monitored
for the need for a watch through the afternoon.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35138173 35318094 35367820 35327717 34747699 34137806
            33707893 33477943 33598082 34028174 34368202 34718212
            35138173