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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH FL AND
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible beginning this evening across the
Florida Keys and continuing overnight into tomorrow morning across
far south Florida. Scattered large hail (some of which may be
significant), damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible
across the southern to central High Plains beginning in the
mid-afternoon.

...South FL...
A developing tropical cyclone east of the Yucatan is forecast by NHC
to move northeast towards the offshore waters near the southwest FL
coast by 12Z tomorrow. Intensifying low-level winds and increasing
hodograph curvature are expected to initially overspread the Keys
later this evening and across the south FL peninsula overnight into
tomorrow morning. Deep convective bands should similarly spread
across these regions amid advection of mid 70s surface dew points.
Some hr** members are quite prolific with the number of rotating
updrafts in this regime. As such, an upgrade to cat 2/SLGT-risk
appears warranted. However per NHC discussion, given that a center
has not yet formed, it's entirely possible that the suite of models
could shift south on subsequent cycles if a center forms farther
south than currently forecast. This would limit the northern extent
of the tornado threat in FL. 

...Southern High Plains to central/east TX...
Remnants of a non-severe MCS in the TX Big Country/Concho Valley
will probably spread east-southeast across parts of central into
east TX through this afternoon. Some intensification of convective
downdrafts is possible towards midday as downstream boundary-layer
heating supports modest surface-based destabilization. Overall
CAPE/shear parameter space appears rather marginal for a more
organized damaging wind threat.

With a ribbon of upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points persisting
to the south and north of the overnight MCS track, scattered
thunderstorm development will occur once again this afternoon off
the higher terrain from the Sangre de Cristos to the Trans-Pecos.
Very steep mid-level lapse rates will support a broadening plume of
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. Several
supercells will likely develop, some of which may produce golf to
tennis ball size hail. An intensifying low-level jet this evening
could support a few hour window for tornado potential, but
convection will likely grow upscale into a couple MCSs from the
Panhandles to the Permian Basin with an attendant severe wind
threat. This threat will diminish overnight, but a weakening MCS
should linger longest across portions of west-central TX.

...Central High Plains...
Persistent southerly low-level flow will aid in poleward moisture
advection and increasing MLCAPE at peak heating. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms developing east off the Front Range will impinge on
the instability axis and intensify by late afternoon. Both buoyancy
and deep-layer shear are expected to be somewhat less favorable
relative to the southern High Plains. Most CAMs suggest transient
supercell structures and multicell clusters should tend to dominate,
which may yield a somewhat lesser intensity threat relative to
farther south.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Within the northern belt of moderate mid-level westerlies occurring
amid a low-amplitude ridge, deep-layer wind profiles will support a
conditional threat for a few supercells as afternoon convection
spreads east off the higher terrain. However, much of the region
lacks appreciable low-level moisture at present with mid 30s to mid
40s surface dew points co*mon. While further moistening will occur
by this afternoon, a marginal CAPE/instability co*bo should support
only an isolated severe hail/wind threat.
  
...Carolinas and GA...
A slow-moving surface cold front and the sea breeze will be the
focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will be weak, although relatively greater across
parts of the Carolinas. Loosely organized multicell clusters should
dominate with some threat for locally damaging winds.

..Grams/Broyles.. 06/03/2022