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Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern NM into far west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022200Z - 030030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and strong/gusty winds
may develop as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and
evening. Watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Ascent preceding a shortwave trough over AZ has
encouraged isolated convective development this afternoon over the
higher terrain of central NM into north-central Mexico. Modest
low-level upslope flow is occurring over far west TX, where somewhat
greater surface dewpoints and related instability are also present.
A couple of the ongoing thunderstorms in north-central Mexico to the
south of El Paso TX have robust cores and supercellular
characteristics, even though deep-layer shear remains modest around
25-35 kt. This activity may pose an isolated threat for severe hail
as it crosses the Rio Grande into far west TX over the next few
hours. Steepened low-level lapse rates should also encourage
strong/gusty downdraft winds. Additional thunderstorms are also
expected to strengthen and pose an isolated threat for severe hail
and wind gusts across central NM. But, low-level moisture is more
limited with northward extent into southern/central NM, which should
temper the overall severe threat to some degree. Overall coverage of
severe thunderstorms should remain rather isolated through the
evening, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Hart.. 06/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30130470 30580501 30980560 31470626 31870647 32710667
            33420742 34710750 35110712 35310643 35280567 35100518
            34930491 34280480 33670485 31830466 30920393 30270350
            29540344 29080358 29290408 29520446 29860470 30130470