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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late afternoon
Friday through the evening over parts of the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A series of weak mid/upper-level troughs will traverse portions of
the Great Plains and Southeast on Friday, to the south of a
weakening deep-layer cyclone centered over eastern
Manitoba/northwest Ontario. A surface ridge will settle into much of
Midwest, as a cold front moves through portions of the Southeast.
West of the ridge, a surface trough will develop across portions of
the High Plains, with one or more weak surface lows potentially
developing along the trough.  

Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to move from
near the Yucatan Peninsula toward the southeast Gulf of Mexico and
potentially develop into a tropical cyclone. See forecasts and
advisories from the National Hurricane Center for more information
regarding this system.  

...High Plains...
Modest moisture return is expected across the High Plains on Friday,
in response to the developing surface trough and increasing
southerly low-level flow. With steep midlevel lapse rates in place,
diurnal heating will support MLCAPE of 500 J/kg by afternoon across
parts of the northern High Plains, and 1000-2000 J/kg into parts of
the central/southern High Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm
development is possible across the High Plains and adjacent high
terrain, with somewhat greater coverage possible across eastern
NM/west TX, where larger instability is expected. 

Initial storms will pose a risk of hail and localized severe gusts.
Some clustering/upscale growth is possible with a severe wind risk
potentially spreading eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and
South Plains vicinity. 

...Central/north TX...
A remnant MCS may be ongoing across parts of northwest TX at the
start of the period Friday morning. Guidance differs substantially
regarding whether this MCS will reintensify during the day and move
southeastward, or continue to weaken with time. Another thunderstorm
cluster/possible MCS that develops across the southern High Plains
may impact the same general area late Friday night into Saturday
morning. Some adjustment/expansion of probabilities may eventually
be needed for this area, depending on short-term observational and
guidance trends. 

...Southeast...
Generally weak large-scale ascent is expected across the Southeast
on Friday, though it is possible that one or more MCVs may traverse
the region. Widely scattered strong storms may develop near the cold
front, with a greater clustering of storms possible should any MCVs
impact the area. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat. 

...South FL/FL Keys...
Uncertainty remains regarding the timing and evolution of the low
pressure system that will move over the southeast Gulf of Mexico,
but it appears possible that tropical moisture and increasing
low-level flow will spread over the FL Keys and southern FL
Peninsula late Friday into early Saturday morning. Should this
occur, the threat for brief tornadoes may increase with time late in
the forecast period.

..Dean.. 06/02/2022