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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging gusts and hail
are possible today over the Mid-Atlantic states.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will be located over northern Manitoba today, with a
broad region of cyclonic flow aloft across the Great Lakes and
Northeast. An embedded shortwave trough will move across the Upper
Great Lakes during the day, with increasing large-scale lift toward
the Mid Atlantic. Enhanced southern-stream westerlies will exist
from the Southwest into the Southern Plains, with a weak upper
trough moving over the West Coast and Great Basin.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to build south across
the Plains, OH and TN Valleys, with the leading cold front moving
east of the Appalachians. This front will trail southwestward toward
the central Gulf Coast states, beco*ing diffuse with weak lift.

...VA into southern NJ and PA...
Strong heating will occur ahead of a cold front and within a surface
trough extending from eastern PA into the central Carolinas by late
afternoon. Mid and high level wind fields will increase and result
in modest hodograph length supporting cellular activity forming by
early afternoon and traveling rapidly eastward. MUCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg appears reasonable though midlevel lapse rates will not be very
steep. Hail is likely with the stronger storms, and coverage of
damaging wind gust potential may depend on storm coverage.

...NM across TX and into the lower MS Valley...
High-based storms are likely to form by 21Z over central NM, moving
quickly east. Other cells may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico
during the evening with strong wind gusts or hail over Far West TX.
Storms may persist in an elevated fashion across much of western TX
overnight but severe potential will be low.

..Jewell.. 06/02/2022