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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID-SOUTH AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High
to the Mid-South and in parts of the Northeast. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary hazards, although a tornado or two is
possible. The most intense storms will likely occur in west Texas
and southeast New Mexico between 3 to 9 PM CDT.

...West TX to southeast NM...
A surface cold front will accelerate its southward push as surface
ridging builds across the High Plains in the wake of a shortwave
trough passage in the central Great Plains. The 00Z HRW-ARW has best
handled this morning's regenerative convection in the TX Panhandle,
along with the placement of convective outflow attendant to the
decayed remnants of an overnight MCS in OK. Robust boundary-layer
heating will be confined to the south of the outflow in TX with the
western extent of upper 50s to mid 60s surface dew points holding in
the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos. Initial surface-based
thunderstorm development is expected in the early afternoon over the
higher terrain, spreading east-southeast into this evening.

A corridor of around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE along the southern periphery
of moderate mid-level westerlies will support initial supercells
with a very large hail threat, especially in the southeast NM and TX
South Plains area. The undercutting nature of the surface front and
amalgamation of robust updrafts might yield forward-propagating
clusters, increasing the potential for 60-80 mph severe wind gusts.
But the lack of a stronger low-level jet this evening, suggests
overall severe coverage may be confined.

...OK to the Mid-South...
Regenerative convection is ongoing across the TX Panhandle to
northwest OK, just north of a pronounced surface cold front slowly
sinking south. Low-level isentropic ascent along the frontal zone
should sustain elevated convection through at least midday, with a
threat for mainly isolated severe hail. See MCD 998 for additional
short-term discussion. Remnants of this activity could eventually
intensify this afternoon as it impinges on a destabilizing air mass
in southeast OK where low 70s surface dew points remain prevalent.

Farther downstream, decaying morning convection still persists from
southwest MO to central IL. Weakening low-level warm theta-e
advection should result in much of this activity further weakening
into midday. Differential heating is anticipated with scattered
thunderstorms developing in the mid-late afternoon along residual
outflows/MCVs. Much of this corridor will lie on the southeast
periphery of moderate mid-level southwesterlies, suggesting that
multicell clusters will dominate. But an MCV drifting east from
northeast OK may help focus greater potential for multicell
clustering into the Mid-South, which would offer a threat of
scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado.

...NY/PA...
Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of
southeast Ontario and will spread across northern NY this morning.
Intensifying boundary-layer heating to the southwest of this
activity should yield pronounced differential heating, which will be
further aided by a north/south-oriented quasi-stationary front from
eastern NY to the Lower DE Valley. Suppression of a mid-level ridge
with approach of an upstream shortwave trough should aid in
scattered surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon. Westerly
low-level winds will limit SRH in the warm sector, but will be
locally enhanced along the surface boundaries. Adequate mid to
upper-level speed shear will exist for a few supercells and
organized clusters capable of producing damaging winds and
marginally severe hail.

..Grams/Mosier.. 06/01/2022