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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Monday into
Monday night from parts of north-central Texas to the Mid-South and
vicinity. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes all appear possible.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move northeastward from the Upper Midwest
into Canada on Monday, with upper ridging expected to build over
much of the northern/central Plains in its wake. Farther west,
another upper trough should move east-southeastward along the West
Coast and across parts of the Great Basin through the period. A weak
surface low initially over southern OK/north-central TX should fill
as it develops northeastward towards the mid MS Valley through the
day. A cold front should extend from parts of the Midwest
southwestward to OK, and a dryline is forecast to sharpen across
central TX to the south of the front through Monday evening.

...Southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys...
Generally elevated thunderstorms along/north of the cold front may
be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning over parts of
MO. This activity may pose an isolated hail/wind threat as it
spreads eastward across the mid MS Valley, but instability should
remain rather weak ahead of it. To the south of the cold front and
east of the dryline, increasing low-level moisture, with low to mid
60s surface dewpoints, should advance northward through the day.
Diurnal heating of this moist low-level airmass and the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates over much of the warm sector will likely
foster the development of 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by peak afternoon
heating. Where more robust heating can occur, locally stronger
instability (upwards of 2500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) may be realized.
This greater instability appears probable over parts of
north-central into northeast TX and perhaps southern/central AR.

A belt of stronger mid-level west-southwesterly flow should be
present over northern portions of the surface warm sector, namely
eastern OK into AR and the Mid-South. Weaker flow aloft is forecast
with southward extent into TX/LA/MS. Regardless, effective bulk
shear should range from 35-50 kt, stronger in the vicinity of the
cold front. The forecast co*bination of moderate to locally strong
instability and enhanced deep-layer shear will likely prove
favorable for convective organization. Supercells should occur with
any convection that can form south of the front, while clusters and
a more linear mode appear probable along the front itself as it
moves slowly east-southeastward through the day, before stalling
Monday night.

Large to very large hail will be a threat with any discrete
supercells that develop late Monday afternoon or evening given the
steep mid-level lapse rates and large reservoir of buoyancy
available. A more focused area of damaging wind potential may exist
along/ahead of the front across AR into the Mid-South. A few
tornadoes also appear possible, particularly Monday evening/night as
a southerly low-level jet slowly strengthens over AR and the lower
MS Valley. The primary uncertainty remains overall coverage of
thunderstorms, as large-scale forcing aloft is expected to remain
nebulous at best. Convective initiation along/east of the dryline in
southeastern OK and north-central/northeast TX appears fairly
conditional at this time. But, if a thunderstorm or two can form in
this region, they would likely pose a threat for very large hail.

..Gleason.. 04/10/2022