Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon and
evening, in a corridor from parts of the Great Lakes southwestward
into the southern Plains. Strong wind gusts may also occur across
parts of western Florida.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow, with a belt of strong winds, will be in
place from the southern Rockies into the southern and central
Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
northwestern section of the southern Plains by mid afternoon. Along
and ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F
will contribute to strong instability just ahead of the front.
Low-level convergence will increase along the front during the mid
to late afternoon, with convective initiation taking place.
Thunderstorms are forecast to rapidly increase in coverage along the
front, with the strong cells moving east-northeastward across
southeast Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the southeastern Texas
Panhandle.

RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon from the eastern Texas
Panhandle to southeast Kansas have MLCAPE reaching the 3000 to 3500
J/kg range. 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak near 8.0 C/km,
while 700-500 mb lapse rates should be around 7.5 C/km. This
co*bined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. The largest hail is
expected from near the Oklahoma-Kansas state line southwestward into
the southeastern Texas Panhandle, where the co*bination of
instability and shear will be most favorable. Hailstones of 2 inches
or greater will be possible with the more vigorous updrafts.
Supercells will also be capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or
two could occur across the southeastern Texas Panhandle during the
early evening as low-level shear increases.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the Ozarks
northeastward into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southeastward into the Ozarks. An outflow boundary
could be situated from central Illinois northeastward into southwest
Michigan. Ahead of these boundaries, surface dewpoints in the upper
60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by
afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop near or along the
boundaries, where low-level convergence will be beco*e maximized.
Storm coverage will increase by early evening, as scattered cells
will move east-northeastward across parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear
and relatively steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels will
support a severe threat with the more organized storms. Supercells
will be capable of large hail and wind damage, while multicells will
have wind-damage potential. An isolated tornado threat could also
develop across parts of central and northern Illinois, where
deep-layer shear will be a bit stronger along the southeastern edge
of a 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet.

...Western Florida...
A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the
Florida Peninsula today. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. A
sea breeze boundary will develop near the coast of western Florida
and move inland during the day. Convection that develops along the
boundary will have access to steep low-level lapse rates, with 0-3
km lapse rates peaking in the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range. This could be
enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/31/2022