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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated to widely scattered
damaging gusts are possible on Thursday for the Mid-Atlantic states.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low is forecast to move little over parts of northern
Manitoba/northwest Ontario on Thursday.  A belt of enhanced
mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough
over the Great Lakes.  In the low levels, a frontal zone/co*posite
outflow will extend from the OH Valley southwestward into the TX
Hill Country.  

...Mid-Atlantic states...
A reservoir of rich low-level moisture is forecast over the
Chesapeake Bay vicinity with upper 60s to lower 70s deg dewpoints
according to model guidance.  Strong heating to the southeast of the
frontal zone will lead to a moderately unstable airmass developing
by early to mid afternoon.  Scattered storms are forecast to develop
near the front and near a lee trough during the afternoon.  Forecast
soundings show a ribbon of moderate 700 mb flow which may aid in
some storm organization and the potential for some vigorous
downdrafts.  Strong to localized severe gusts capable of wind damage
and isolated large hail are the primary threats.

...Central Appalachians/Mid South and into northeast TX...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the leading edge
of outflow over the southern Great Plains and near the front farther
northeast over the TN/KY/WV area.  Although deep-layer shear will
remain modest, strong to occasionally severe multicells in several
clusters will probably yield localized wind-damage potential with
the stronger cores.  This activity will likely weaken by the early
evening.

...Far west TX into southern NM...
Relatively moist easterly low-level flow will advect into far west
TX and adjacent NM.  Although weak mid-level westerly flow will
exist due to proximity of the mid-level anticyclone over northern
MX, sufficient effective shear (25 kt) coupled with moderate
buoyancy and steep lapse rates will support the potential for
isolated severe gusts and large hail with the more intense storms.

..Smith.. 05/31/2022