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Mesoscale Discussion 0972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Areas affected...Northern/Central MN...Southeast ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...291...

Valid 300958Z - 301130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290, 291
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts
continues across northern/central MN.

DISCUSSION...A co*plex/messy scenario continues across northern and
central MN. Elevated supercells continue across northern MN,
supported by persistent warm-air advection over the warm front
extending from a surface low over southeast ND eastward across
central MN into west-central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain
in place, fostering strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates
MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg. Moderate bulk shear also remains in place,
and the overall air mass will support elevated supercells capable of
large hail for the next few hours.

South of the warm front, a well-organized convective line continues
to move quickly northeastward across central MN. Current estimated
storm motion of this line is 55 kt, bringing it into the
southeastern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 291 around 1030Z.
This line has a history of producing severe wind gusts, including a
73 kt gust OVL and a 57 kt at STC. This line is moving within a
corridor of strong buoyancy, and is expected to continue for the
next few hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts will remain
possible with this line.

..Mosier.. 05/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   47999501 48109369 47859223 47129204 45619304 45359537
            46569739 47559653 47999501