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Topic: SPC May 30, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (Read 40 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC May 30, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC May 30, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

[html]SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
     
Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN ARKANSAS; CENTRAL OHIO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday for portions of the southern Great Plains and the lower
Great Lakes.  Large hail and severe/damaging gusts are the primary
hazards.

...Discussion...
A belt of strong mid-level flow will be relegated primarily north of
a frontal zone extending from the southern High Plains
east-northeastward into the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. 
Showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning over
parts of OK/AR as a southern Great Plains LLJ weakens during the
morning.  The airmass to the south of a co*posite boundary over the
southern Great Plains will destabilize during the day, with rich
low-level moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints) forecast from
OK east-northeastward into the OH Valley.  Scattered thunderstorms
will likely redevelop near the aforementioned front/outflow
co*posite boundary over the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks. 
Widely scattered severe gusts and large hail are possible with the
stronger multicells.

Farther northeast over the lower Great Lakes, strong westerly
mid-level flow will overspread the region in advance of a mid-level
shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Lakes to
the Lake Erie vicinity by early evening.  Scattered clusters of
storms likely initiating on the front in OH and northern PA/NY will
move east during the afternoon into the early evening.  The stronger
downdrafts will probably yield 50-65 mph gusts and result in a risk
for wind damage.  Isolated large hail may acco*pany the stronger
cores, especially over NY southwestward into OH where effective
shear magnitudes will range from 35-50 kt.  This activity will
likely diminish by the early evening.

..Smith.. 05/30/2022


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Source: SPC May 30, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html)