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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and large hail are
expected today across parts of the central and northern Plains. A
few gusts of over 65 knots may occur. Marginally severe storms may
also occur across parts of the southern Plains and in the Northeast.

...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward today across the mid to
upper Mississippi Valley, as southwest mid-level flow beco*es
established in its wake across the northern Plains. In response, two
centers of surface low pressure will develop in the Great Plains,
one in southwest Nebraska and the other in western South Dakota. To
the east of these surface lows, surface winds will back to the east
and southeast. This will result in a gradual increase in low-level
moisture across the central and northern Plains. Low-level
convergence is forecast to increase this afternoon in western and
central South Dakota, in and around the northern surface low. This
will coincide with thunderstorm development. These storms will
expand in coverage and move eastward across South Dakota and
northern Nebraska, along the northern edge of moderate instability.

NAM forecast soundings at 00Z/Sunday across southern and central
South Dakota have a nearly dry adiabatic profile in the low to
mid-levels. Buoyancy within the soundings is generally above 700 mb,
suggesting the storms will be high-based. A substantial amount of
speed shear is present above 700 mb, with cloud-layer shear forecast
to be near 40 knots. This co*bined with the steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will make severe winds possible with the stronger
multicell line segments. Some loosely organized supercells with
large hail will also be possible. The faster-moving line segments
could produce isolated wind gusts greater than 65 knots. The severe
threat should beco*e more isolated and continue into the mid to late
evening, reaching far eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. 

...Southern Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern Plains
today. At the surface, a dryline will sharpen up by afternoon from
northwest Texas into western Oklahoma. East of the dryline, surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F will result in moderate
destabilization. Increasing low-level convergence along the dryline
should result in convective initiation late this afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across
northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. In this area, deep-layer shear
is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range, suggesting that
isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible. The steep
low to mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for strong wind
gusts, associated with high-based storms. The threat should end
quickly during the early evening as a capping inversion returns to
the southern Plains.

...Northeast...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Northeast today. At
the surface, a cold front will advance eastward reaching northern
New England and eastern New York by midday. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will result in weak
instability by early afternoon. This co*bined with unidirectional
wind profiles, and 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range, could be
enough for marginally severe wind gusts. The threat should move
eastward into the coastal areas of New England by late afternoon.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/28/2022