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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely over Nebraska
northeastward into Minnesota on Sunday and Sunday night. 
Significant severe weather including very large hail and 60-85 mph
gusts are possible with the strongest storms.  A few tornadoes are
also possible.

...Synopsis...
Model guidance is consistent in showing the exit region of a
powerful, cyclonically curved upper jet overspreading the central
High Plains into the mid MO Valley during the period, as a
large-scale mid-level trough resides over the Interior West.  A
mid-level anticyclone will reside over the Carolinas.  In the low
levels, a surface front is forecast to move south-southeastward
across a large part of the Dakotas into central NE and intersect a
surface low/triple point near the KS/NE border.  A dryline will
extend southward into the southern Great Plains.

...Central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest...
An elevated thunderstorm cluster will likely be ongoing early Sunday
morning over the northern half of MN in association with warm-air
advection.  An isolated hail/wind risk could acco*pany this
activity.  Farther south and during the afternoon near the
front/inverted trough extending from the eastern Dakotas into
central NE, strong heating coupled with dewpoints rising into the
60s deg F will lead to a moderately to very unstable airmass
(ranging from 2000 J/kg north to 4000 J/kg over eastern NE).  This
area will likely beco*e weakly capped by late afternoon.  Recent
model guidance has indicated isolated to scattered storms will
develop over western NE and spread into central NE during the
afternoon into the early evening.  It is unclear whether convective
initiation in the warm sector will occur east of the boundary,
although it seems most probable if this scenario occurs, that it
would occur immediately northeast of the triple point in
south-central NE.  Storm coverage is forecast to increase during the
evening with large to very large hail and a tornado risk with
supercells during the early evening from central NE into eastern SD.
Upscale growth into one or more clusters will pose a risk for 60-85
mph gusts.  This activity will likely continue through the late
evening and perhaps overnight with the severe risk gradually
diminishing.

...Western CO and southern WY into the NE Panhandle...
Cool mid-level temperatures and diurnal heating will yield a
marginally unstable airmass featuring steep low to mid-level lapse
rates.  Forecast soundings show dry sub-cloud layers and effective
shear magnitudes 35-45 kt.  Isolated to widely scattered storms will
likely develop by midday over western CO and into southern WY. 
Strong to locally severe gusts are possible.  By mid to late
afternoon near the Front Range/Laramie Range and adjacent plains,
isolated to scattered storms are probable.  Increasing PW will
likely aid both a hail risk and more vigorous downdrafts capable of
widely scattered severe gusts, as this activity moves into the NE
Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening.

..Smith.. 05/28/2022