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Mesoscale Discussion 0940
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Areas affected...Much of West Virginia...western Virginia...and far
northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271938Z - 272115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe weather threat will persist through the
afternoon and early evening across portions of West Virginia.
Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado are the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...An arcing band of showers/stratiform rain stabilized
much of West Virginia this morning. However, in it's wake, it has
destabilized rather quickly with an expanding cumulus field apparent
on visible satellite. In addition, a  mini supercell has developed
near the West Virginia/Kentucky border. Do not expect a widespread
severe weather threat due to the limited instability and lack of
stronger flow in the low-levels. However, shear and instability
appear sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for
a stronger storm or two which could be capable of damaging wind
gusts. The VWP derived hodograph from RLX is relatively straight in
the low-levels which should limit the overall tornado threat, but it
cannot be ruled out given the ambient vorticity beneath the
upper-low and the potential for supercell structures.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 05/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37948248 38618217 39248159 39148033 38447933 37567898
            36637963 36338079 36418175 37118182 37328195 37948248