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Mesoscale Discussion 0939
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Areas affected...NJ/Southeast PA into far southeast NY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278...

Valid 271916Z - 272045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278
continues.

SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado remain
possible as a line of storms moves northeastward. Downstream watch
issuance is possible depending on intensity trends with the ongoing
line.

DISCUSSION...At 19Z, a loosely organized QLCS is moving through
portions of southeast PA into southern NJ, with generally subsevere
intensity noted over the last hour. Downstream heating has been
limited by extensive cloudiness, but some additional destabilization
is possible, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000
J/kg range. Moderate low/midlevel flow is noted on the KDIX VWP,
supporting continued potential for some storm organization through
the remainder of the afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts will
remain possible, especially where somewhat greater heating and
steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur prior to storm
arrival. Low-level shear is not particularly strong, but may be
sufficient to support a brief tornado threat with any line-embedded
circulations. 

Some severe threat could eventually spread downstream of WW 278. New
watch issuance is possible, depending on short-term intensity trends
with the ongoing QLCS.

..Dean/Thompson.. 05/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   39557535 39887560 40787593 41397465 41287403 40647364
            39597407 38517487 38767519 39297533 39557535