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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
South Dakota and Nebraska on Saturday. Large hail and severe gusts
should be the primary severe hazards.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Saturday, while upper ridging shifts eastward over
parts of the Plains, Upper Midwest, and central Canada. Large-scale
upper troughing is forecast to amplify over the western states
through the period, with multiple low-amplitude perturbations
expected to move across the Great Basin and northern/central
Rockies.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A dryline should be in place over the northern/central High Plains
Saturday afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves over the
central Rockies, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
initially develop over the higher terrain before spreading eastward.
Isolated severe winds may occur with this high-based convection
across parts of central WY, even though instability will remain
weak. Eventually, thunderstorms will move into a slightly more moist
airmass across far eastern WY into western SD and the NE Panhandle.
Steep low-level lapse rates will support severe wind gusts, while
steepened mid-level lapse rates also foster 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Isolated large hail may occur with any supercells that form, as
30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should support a mix of multicells
and supercells. With time, convection will probably grow upscale
into a small bowing cluster as it moves eastward across parts of SD
and north-central NE Saturday evening. Isolated significant severe
wind gusts may occur as the mode beco*es mainly linear.

...Southern Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along and just east of a surface
dryline late Saturday afternoon across parts of northwest TX into
western OK. Robust diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass
should promote very steep low-level lapse rates, and the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates should also foster moderate instability.
This region will be on the southern fringe of stronger mid-level
flow associated with an approaching upper trough. Still, 20-30 kt of
deep-layer shear should support modest updraft organization with any
thunderstorms that can form. Both severe wind gusts and hail may
occur as convection spreads eastward through the early evening
before dissipating over western OK as inhibition rapidly increases.

...Northeast...
Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should occur
across parts of the Northeast ahead of a front. Instability is
forecast to remain fairly weak owing to poor mid-level lapse rates,
with MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced
mid-level flow ahead of an upper trough will allow for some
organization as thunderstorms develop by late Saturday afternoon.
Both marginally severe hail and isolated strong to damaging winds
may occur as convection moves eastward towards the Atlantic Coast
through Saturday afternoon.

..Gleason.. 05/27/2022