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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for the Nebraska
Sandhills and South Dakota.  Large hail and severe gusts are the
primary severe hazards.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough initially over NY/PA will move east to the New
England coast by early evening before exiting into the Gulf of St.
Lawrence.  A flattened upstream mid-level ridge is forecast over the
central U.S. while a large-scale trough moves into the Interior West
by early Sunday morning.  

...North-central Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will feature a series of impulses
moving northeast from the north-central Rockies into the Upper
Midwest.  Models are showing a lee trough/dryline over the High
Plains and are consistent in showing a weak disturbance moving into
the NE Panhandle/Black Hills vicinity by late afternoon/early
evening.  Although low-level moisture will be limited initially, a
gradually moistening boundary layer and strong heating will likely
lead to isolated storms developing by the late afternoon in eastern
WY/western SD, and perhaps farther south on a more isolated basis
into west-central NE.  An intensifying LLJ over the central Great
Plains will develop after dark.  It appears increasingly possible
that a linear cluster develops during the evening and moves east
over SD.  The very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, coupled with a
linear mode, and explicit model guidance (00z/27 NAM, HRW-NSSL,
HRW-NAM nest) showing a rear-inflow jet structure/implied severe
gusts all co*bine to support a significant wind area.  Large hail
and severe gusts will be the primary threats with this activity.

...Southwest TX into western OK...
Strong heating along a dryline will gradually weaken the cap by
mid-late afternoon.  Localized erosion of the cap is possible from
southwest TX through the Caprock regions.  Very steep lapse rates
and deep-layer shear sufficient for organized multicells, will
support a risk for severe gusts and large hail.  This activity will
dissipate by mid evening.

...New England...
Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints will likely yield
500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon.  Convection-allowing model
consensus indicates storms will preferentially develop along a
frontal segment during the afternoon.  A couple of locally intense
multicells may yield wind damage or marginally severe hail for a few
hours before diminishing.

..Smith.. 05/27/2022