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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS....

...Synopsis...
Moderate southwesterly flow already established over much of the
Great Basin and Southwest is forecast to intensify ahead of a
stronger trough and mid-level jet streak moving onshore across the
West Coast Saturday. At the surface, ascent from the approaching
trough will intensify a pair of surface cyclones across the southern
Great Basin and lee of the central Rockies respectively. Enhanced by
the deepening lows and strong flow aloft, surface winds across much
of the Great Basin, Southwest and southern High Plains will likely
reach 20-30 mph. In co*bination with surface humidity below 15% and
dry fuels, widespread critical fire weather conditions appear
likely. 

...Southwest and Four Corners...
By mid morning, low-level southwesterly winds are forecast to
increase across much of the Southwest and southern Great Basin. This
trend should continue through the afternoon in response to the
deepening surface cyclone and approaching mid-level trough. Area
model soundings show deep and well-mixed profiles, with 20-30 mph
surface winds and humidity below 10% through much of the afternoon
and into the early evening. With ongoing drought, abundant dry fuels
will support widespread critical fire weather concerns. Localized
pockets of sub 10% RH and winds near 30 mph may also support
localized extremely critical conditions for a couple of hours across
portions of eastern NM and the Four Corners. 

...Southern High Plains...
Farther to the east across the southern High Plains, strong
southwesterly winds and downsloping flow are expected to increase
south of the strengthening lee low. Widespread winds of 20-25 mph
appear possible along with warm temperatures and afternoon humidity
of 8-15%. While meteorological conditions appear quite conducive to
widespread fire weather concerns, considerable uncertainty exists in
the state of area fuels after multiple days of moderate to heavy
rain. Though some drying is forecast to take place, it remains
unclear if fuels will support critical concerns at this time.
Additional expansion of the Elevated/Critical Risk areas may be
needed in subsequent outlooks should greater confidence in critical
fuels develop.

..Lyons.. 05/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...