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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
INDIANA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, mainly with wind damage potential, will be
possible across parts of Indiana and western North Carolina for a
few more hours this evening. Storms associated with marginally
severe wind gusts could also occur from parts of the Carolinas
northwestward into the Ohio Valley. A few storms with hail and
strong wind gusts may also occur in the Northwest.

...Ohio Valley...
The latest radar imagery from Indianapolis shows a line of strong
thunderstorms located from south-central Indiana north-northwestward
into western Indiana. This convection is near a pocket of
instability, with the RAP showing about 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE.  The
storms are on the northeastern side of an upper-level system, near a
small speed max at 500 mb. This was enhancing deep-layer shear
across western Indiana, where 0-6 km shear is estimated in the 50 to
60 knot range. This co*bined with the instability could be enough
for an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. The
severe threat could spread eastward across parts of central and
eastern Indiana over the next few hours.

...North Carolina...
The latest radar imagery from Raleigh, North Carolina shows a line
of strong to severe storms in western North Carolina. This
convection is located along the northern edge of an axis of
instability, where the RAP is showing MLCAPE in the 750 to 1000 J/kg
range. In addition, mid-level flow across western North Carolina is
from the south-southwest around 40 knots, which was creating enough
shear for severe storms. The Greensboro, North Carolina 00Z sounding
has some low-level shear in the lowest kilometer above ground, with
0-3km shear near 200 m2/s2. This could be enough for a supercell and
marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two. An isolated wind
damage threat may also exist, mainly along the leading edge of
multicell line segments. The threat should diminish after sunset due
to weakening instability.

...Northwest...
Southwest mid-level flow is currently located over the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, a pocket of maximized low-level moisture
is analyzed over far northeastern Oregon and north-central Idaho.
Surface dewpoints within this pocket are in the lower 50s F, which
has enabled an area of weak instability to develop. A few storms
were ongoing in northeastern Oregon, along the southwestern edge of
the stronger instability. This convection will likely move
northeastward into western and northern Idaho this evening, where a
marginal severe threat will be possible. The instability, strong
deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates may support a localized
threat for strong wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2022