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Mesoscale Discussion 0930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and western Indiana.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262302Z - 270030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado will remain possible with
thunderstorms this evening across parts of western and central IN.

DISCUSSION...Evening WV imagery across the Midwest showed a well
developed mid-level cyclone across parts of the Midwest and central
MS Valley. To the east of this low, deep southerly flow was
overspreading a weakly unstable airmass across western and central
IN. SPC mesoanalysis shows modest buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE)
has developed beneath the -15 C cold pocket near the mid-level
cyclone, which was supporting several clusters of thunderstorms.
This buoyancy, concentrated mostly in the low-levels (0-3km MLCAPE
100-200 J/kg), ahead of the slow moving cold front across western IN
will likely continue to support a few strong low-level updrafts this
evening. With moderate vertical shear and bountiful vertical
vorticity near the closed low/cold front, low-level parcel
acceleration may enhance vorticity stretching potential to support a
brief and weak supercell/landspout tornado through this evening.
This threat is expected to be relatively brief before nocturnal
cooling stabilizes the boundary layer. Given the expected limited
threat, a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 05/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40578754 40658728 40488678 40238653 39928641 39278639
            38848654 38598670 38438689 38448710 38778727 38878724
            39328732 39838745 40168753 40578754