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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible
over parts of the inland Northwest, and from the Midwest/Ohio Valley
region to the east-central Gulf Coast states and southern
Appalachians.

...20Z Update...
An arcing band of low-topped thunderstorms is present from far
eastern IA into parts of IL. This convection is occurring in close
proximity to an upper low centered over MO/AR. An 18Z sounding from
ILX indicates about 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is available, along with a
mainly southerly wind profile through the troposphere. Around 30-35
kt of effective bulk shear should continue to foster modest updraft
organization, with both marginally severe hail and isolated damaging
winds remaining possible as thunderstorms spread northward this
afternoon.

A somewhat separate band of convection is ongoing from
western/central KY into middle TN. The airmass ahead of this
activity is only weakly unstable given persistent cloudiness and
earlier showers and thunderstorms, with an 18Z sounding from ILN
showing less than 250 J/kg of MLCAPE present. It remains unclear
whether the broken line or small clusters ahead of it will
strengthen this afternoon as they move east-northeastward given the
limited instability and heating downstream. If they can strengthen,
then damaging winds would be the main threat given the mainly linear
mode. Enough low-level shear is also present per recent VWPs from
KOHX/KILN (around 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH) to support some
low-level rotation and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

Severe probabilities have been reduced across much of AL, western
GA, and the FL Panhandle. Transient low-level circulations offshore
have generally weakened as they approach land. With stronger
low-level flow shifting into the OH Valley, and limited instability
inland owing to widespread showers/precipitation, the prospect for
damaging winds and a brief tornado across these areas should remain
fairly low. Slightly better prospects for surface-based
thunderstorms should exist this afternoon and early evening from
portions of central/eastern GA into upstate SC. Ongoing bands of
convection may pose a threat for strong to locally damaging winds
and perhaps a brief tornado as they spread northeastward over the
next few hours. See Mesoscale Discussion 926 for more details.

No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across parts of the
interior Pacific Northwest.

..Gleason.. 05/26/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022/

...IL/IN...
A deep upper low will track slowly northeastward across MO today. 
The main surface cold front associated with this low extends roughly
along the MS River from northeast MO into southern IL.  Considerable
low-level moisture is present ahead of the front across parts of
IL/IN, where relatively strong daytime heating will take place. 
Given the cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates, scattered
thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon and track northward. 
The strongest cells will pose a risk of hail and damaging wind
gusts.  Please refer to MCD #923 for more details.

...KY/TN into OH...
The mid-level jet max associated with the aforementioned upper low
extends from AR into KY/TN.  Heating will be slow in the area along
the cold front over middle TN and central KY, but dewpoints in the
mid 60s and temperatures slowly warming through the 70s will yield
sufficient CAPE for thunderstorms by mid-afternoon.  Relatively
strong low and deep layer shear profiles will promote organized
storm structures including bowing structures and supercells. 
Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, along with a few
tornadoes.  This activity will move into eastern KY and southern OH
this evening before encountering a more stable air mass and
weakening.

...AL/GA/FL...
Isolated supercells have been occurring off the AL/FL coast this
morning.  Other storms are expected through the day along/ahead of
the cold front over western AL.  Extensive cloud cover across the
region will limit heating/destabilization.  Nevertheless, the
strongest cells in this area will pose a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

...OR/ID...
A progressive shortwave trough is approaching the OR coast.  Lift
ahead of this trough, coupled with full sunshine and surface
dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s will result in scattered afternoon
thunderstorms from northeast OR into ID.  Hail and locally damaging
wind gusts may occur in the strongest cells late this afternoon and
evening.