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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Friday from the Carolinas
northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts and a
few tornadoes should be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the OH Valley
across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday. Large-scale upper
ridging will be maintained over much of the Rockies and Plains,
while a couple of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move across the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure
extending from the Great Lakes into Quebec should develop slowly
east-northeastward through the period in tandem with the upper low,
while a cold front will move eastward over much of the East Coast.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
Although mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain generally
poor, rich low-level moisture characterized by mid 60s to low 70s
surface dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of the cold front.
Even modest diurnal heating should contribute to MLCAPE generally
ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, with somewhat greater instability
forecast from parts of MD/VA southward into the Carolinas. Enhanced
low/mid-level south-southwesterly flow associated with the upper low
is expected to be in place from the Carolinas northward over much of
the eastern Mid-Atlantic states ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear
of 35-50+ kt will easily support thunderstorm organization, with a
mix of multicells and supercells possible.

Thunderstorms that will probably be ongoing at the start of the
period Friday morning should gradually increase in coverage and
intensity along/ahead of the front from late Friday morning through
the afternoon. With a large southerly co*ponent to the low/mid-level
winds, convection should tend to grow upscale with time into small
bowing clusters as individual updrafts interact with each other. It
appears that scattered damaging winds will probably be the main
threat as thunderstorms spread east-northeastward through the
afternoon and early evening given the messy and mainly multicellular
mode. But, enough low-level shear should also be present in
association with a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet to support a
risk for a few tornadoes with any embedded supercells, particularly
from central NC into VA/MD/DE, southeastern PA, and NJ Friday
afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts.
The northern extent of the appreciable severe in NY and the
Northeast will be heavily dependent on diurnal heating, the degree
of which remains highly uncertain.

...Montana/Wyoming into the Western Dakotas...
An area of low pressure should develop Friday afternoon over the
western Dakotas as a subtle shortwave trough overspreads the
northern Rockies and High Plains. Initially high-based thunderstorms
that form over the higher terrain of MT/WY should quickly move
eastward into a weakly unstable airmass given limited low-level
moisture. Still, the boundary layer is expected to beco*e very well
mixed by Friday afternoon across the High Plains as diurnal heating
occurs, and isolated strong to severe wind gusts appear possible
with this convection. A few instances of severe hail may also occur
with any robust thunderstorm that can be sustained, as deep-layer
shear appears sufficiently strong for a supercell.

..Gleason.. 05/26/2022