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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

Only minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on
current guidance. Widely scattered virga showers with gusty outflow
winds are possible in central/northern Nevada. Thermodynamic
profiles remain marginally supportive of a few lightning flashes
across the region. With most area fuels still only marginally dry,
particularly the larger fuels, ignition efficiency from any
lightning activity is expected to be low.

..Wendt.. 05/26/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022/

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely this afternoon across
northwestern to southern Nevada. Early-morning water vapor imagery
reveals an upper-level wave approaching the Pacific Northwest.
Surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin will induce
south to southwesterly winds off the Sierra Nevada and lower CO
River Valley. Sustained winds between 15 to 20 mph are expected by
early afternoon based on ensemble guidance. However, deep
boundary-layer mixing will support frequent wind gusts between 25-35
mph, especially across central to southern NV where nearly all
solutions show the strongest low-level mass response. Downslope
effects, co*bined with antecedent dry conditions and diurnal
warming, will support RH reductions into the 10-15% range across
much of the region. Consequently, elevated (to briefly critical)
fire weather conditions appear likely, including across far western
NV where several lightning strikes were noted Wednesday afternoon. 

...Dry Thunderstorms... 
The approaching upper low will also support the potential for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across the
Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern Great Basin. Observed 00
UTC soundings show an increase in column precipitable water over the
region, but values remain near 0.3 to 0.5 inches. Continued
moistening is expected, but PWATs will likely remain near 0.5 to
0.75 across NV and will support a dry-lightning threat. While the
probability for thunderstorms is highest across portions of OR, WA,
and ID, a few dry thunderstorms are possible across central to
northern NV. An isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area is introduced
where confidence in thunderstorms overlapping with critically dry
fuels is highest.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...