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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from
the Carolinas northward into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. 
Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary threats
with the stronger storms in the Chesapeake Bay region.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low initially over southern IN will move
east-northeastward into central PA and weaken into an open trough by
early Saturday.  A co*posite boundary will push east across the
Appalachians and much of the eastern U.S. during the period. 
Farther west, a belt of low-amplitude, southwesterly mid-level flow
will spread across the northwestern CONUS as a mid-level ridge
weakens over the central U.S.

...Southeast northward through the Mid-Atlantic states and
NY/VT/ME...
Model guidance is consistent in depicting scattered
showers/thunderstorms to be ongoing Friday morning from parts of the
central Appalachians southward into the Carolinas and northeast Gulf
of Mexico.  Ahead of the convection, moisture advection via moderate
southerly low-level flow will contribute to dewpoints ranging from
the lower-mid 60s in the Northeast, to the upper 60s to lower 70s
from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity and south.  Diurnal heating will
yield 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the Mid-Atlantic states southward
into coastal SC.  An extensive broken squall line (linear clusters
and transient supercells) will likely develop during the afternoon
into the early evening.  Ample deep-layer shear for storm
organization will exist from the Canadian border southward into the
Mid-Atlantic states with 30-50 kt effective shear forecast.  Weaker
flow is progged farther south (20-30 kt effective shear) but
organized multicells will be possible.  Isolated large hail could
acco*pany the stronger cells.  The concentration of 50-65 mph gusts
and wind damage will probably be highest in the
Mid-Atlantic/Chesapeake Bay vicinity.  There, forecast hodographs
and moist low levels will conditionally yield a several-hour period
favorable for storm-scale rotation (supercellular or QLCS) and an
associated risk for a few tornadoes.  This activity will likely
weaken during the evening.

...MT/WY into western Dakotas...
A series of weak mid-level disturbances is forecast to move quickly
east across the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains.  As
a result, an area of low pressure will likely develop over the
western Dakotas by late afternoon.  A marginally moist boundary
layer beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will yield 500-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE by late afternoon.  Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will probably develop during the late afternoon/early
evening.  Isolated severe gusts and hail may acco*pany the stronger
storms.

..Smith.. 05/26/2022