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Mesoscale Discussion 0920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Areas affected...central and western Illinois into eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252346Z - 260145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of storms may produce sporadic wind damage
over the next few hours across Illinois and into eastern Iowa.
Coverage of expected severe is not expected to warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Storms currently exist along a line from the southeast
corner of IA to near St. Louis and Mount Vernon. These storms are
embedded within southerly 40 kt deep-layer mean wind fields which is
aiding the rapid northward motions.

The airmass remains modestly unstable with around 750 J/kg MLCAPE,
but PWAT is averaging 1.50 to 1.75". Pockets of heating previously
led to steeper low-level lapse rates as well, and this along with
high PWAT may continue to favor strong downdrafts.  Most wind gust
observations have averaged around 40 kt, and a continuation of this
appears reasonable given waning daylight. Otherwise, 0-1 SRH near
100 m2/s2 could briefly result in weak rotation in some of these
convective lines, but the overall tornado threat is expected to be
low.

..Jewell/Grams.. 05/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41079157 41689178 42079176 42379151 42469093 42449035
            41818967 40968909 40038869 39408909 39218998 39739068
            40259109 41079157