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Mesoscale Discussion 0911
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Areas affected...Parts of Deep South Texas into the lower Rio Grande
Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

Valid 250720Z - 250845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms, including a few supercell
structures, will continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally
strong surface gusts while slowly developing southward across a
corridor from Laredo to Corpus Christi through 4-6 AM.  Trends are
being monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather
watch across the Brownsville and adjacent lower Rio Grande vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Outflow emanating from the larger, primary convective
cluster is surging southward toward the Corpus Christi and Laredo
vicinities, where warmer and more strongly capping elevated
mixed-layer air is inhibiting renewed thunderstorm development
along/ahead of it.  However, warm advection and elevated inflow of
seasonably moist air emanating from the lower Rio Grande Valley is
maintaining vigorous thunderstorm development in a corridor above/to
the cool side of the outflow.  In the presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates, large CAPE and strong vertical shear within the
convective layer (beneath 30-50 kt northwesterly 500 mb flow) remain
conducive to the evolution of supercell structures posing a risk for
severe hail and perhaps a few locally strong surface gusts.  This
appears likely to persist another few hours, gradually approaching
the Brownsville vicinity through daybreak.

..Kerr.. 05/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28950025 28179740 27279732 26979841 27319931 28440006
            28950025