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Mesoscale Discussion 0910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas into southwestern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

Valid 250638Z - 250845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272
continues.

SUMMARY...Although the ongoing large cluster of storms has weakened
a bit as it progresses into the coastal plain, at least some
reintensification appears possible by 3-5 AM CDT near and northeast
through east of the Greater Houston area.  It is not certain that a
new severe weather watch will be needed across the remainder of
southeast Texas into Louisiana, but trends are being monitored for
this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Inflow of less unstable air emanating from the middle
Texas coastal plain has contributed to substantive weakening to
convection along much of the leading edge of southeastward advancing
convective outflow.  Stronger thunderstorm activity has beco*e
focused in an arcing band east-southeast of a lower/mid tropospheric
mesoscale convective vortex, which is beco*ing at least somewhat
better defined to the southeast of Temple.  Latest Rapid Refresh
suggests that this feature will track with a strengthening mid-level
speed maximum northeastward into the Piney Woods through daybreak.

It is more unclear if the inflow air will remain unstable enough to
support vigorous convection capable of producing severe wind gusts. 
However, as activity progresses across/northeast and east of the
Greater Houston area by 08-10Z, inflow of boundary-layer air
characterized by 70+ F surface dew points near upper Texas coastal
areas might be sufficient to support convective reintensification.

..Kerr.. 05/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   31059577 31209544 31359391 31139303 30169343 29789455
            29969610 30419573 31059577