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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from
the Carolinas northward into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. 
Damaging gusts are the primary threat with the stronger storms.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low initially over the lower OH Valley will move
east-northeastward into western PA by early Saturday.  A co*posite
boundary will push east across the Appalachians and much of the
eastern U.S. during the period.  Farther west, a belt of
low-amplitude flow will spread across the northwestern CONUS as a
mid-level ridge weakens over the central U.S.

...Southeast northward through the Mid-Atlantic states and NY/VT...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday
morning from parts of the central Appalachians southward into the
Carolinas and northeast Gulf of Mexico.  Southerly low-level flow
will advect increasingly rich moisture northward into the
Mid-Atlantic states and Northeast.  Model guidance indicates surface
dewpoints will range from the mid 60s north in NY to the upper 60s
to lower 70s from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity and south.  Ahead of
the convection, the airmass is forecast to beco*e moderately
unstable with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast from coastal SC into
the Mid-Atlantic states.  Bands of storms and linear clusters will
likely develop by the early afternoon and intensify into peak
heating.  Ample deep-layer shear for storm organization will exist
from the Canadian border southward into the Mid-Atlantic states with
30-50 kt effective shear forecast.  Weaker flow is progged farther
south (20-30 kt effective shear) but organized multicells will be
possible.  Large hail could acco*pany the stronger cells but 50-65
mph gusts and wind damage will likely occur with the stronger
downdrafts/surges in thunderstorm bands.  This activity will likely
weaken during the evening.

...MT into western Dakotas...
A series of weak mid-level disturbances is forecast to move quickly
east across the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains.  As
a result, an area of low pressure will likely develop over the
western Dakotas by late afternoon.  A marginally moist boundary
layer beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will yield 500-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE by late afternoon.  Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will probably develop during the late afternoon/early
evening.  Isolated severe gusts and hail may acco*pany the stronger
storms.

..Smith.. 05/25/2022