SPC May 25, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
SPC May 25, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
[html]Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance is converging towards a scenario in
which the north-central U.S. will be a focus for thunderstorms and a
risk for severe weather beginning this weekend. Models show the
left-exit region of a cyclonically curved upper jet to impinge on
the SD vicinity on Saturday. Boundary-layer moisture will gradually
increase into the weekend beneath a reinvigorated elevated mixed
layer forecast to overspread the central Great Plains northward into
SD on Saturday. A surface boundary and warm-air advection will help
focus storm development both on Saturday and Sunday over parts of
the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. By early next week, some model
spread and uncertainty regarding convective details co*pel a
predictability-too-low highlight. With those caveats listed, it
seems the severe risk will probably be located from parts of the
central High Plains northward into the Upper Midwest in proximity to
the stronger westerlies.
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Source: SPC May 25, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)
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