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Mesoscale Discussion 0904
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Areas affected...Rio Grande Valley in south-central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

Valid 242257Z - 250100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across the Rio Grande into
south-central Texas may pose an isolated severe wind and large hail
threat this evening south of WW 269. SPC has coordinated with WFO
San Antonio to expand WW 269 south to address this potential.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that developed off the Sierra del Carmen
mountains in northern Mexico earlier this afternoon have shown a
recent uptick in intensity (noted in lightning data, GOES IR
imagery, and MRMS vertically integrated ice) after a period of
stagnant growth. These cells are also showing signs of persistence
as they move off the higher terrain and towards the Rio Grande.
Given a very favorable thermodyanmic environment along the river
valley (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with modest inhibition), as well as
strong effective bulk shear to the east/southeast, storms will
likely cross the river into south-central Texas. Most recent CAM
solutions show this convection struggling to persist beyond 00 UTC
as it moves further into TX, but a few members of the experimental
WOFS guidance suggests a cell or two may meander south of the San
Antonio area later this evening. These storms will primarily pose a
large hail and severe wind risk, and the uncertain spatial and
temporal nature of the threat precludes a new watch issuance, though
WW 269 will be extended southward to address this threat.

..Moore/Grams.. 05/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29390114 29570079 29550036 29089984 28779954 28379944
            28109953 27899969 27819994 28030021 28310043 28690062
            29070079 29390114