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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with wind damage and hail will be possible on
Wednesday from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in the lower
Ohio Valley.

...Texas Coastal Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
southern Plains on Wednesday. The base of the trough should be
across the Texas Hill Country, with strong large-scale ascent ahead
of the trough from the Arklatex into east Texas. Due to this,
convective development is expected early in the day from the
southern Texas Hill Country eastward onto the Texas Coastal Plain.
These storms are forecast to move eastward into southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana during the afternoon. Ahead of this storm
cluster, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place along the
immediate Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts. In addition to surface
dewpoints in the lower 70s F, forecast soundings have MLCAPE near
3000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This suggests
that the stronger cells within the cluster could beco*e organized.
Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge, especially if
a cold pool can beco*e established. The timing of convective
development will likely determine the magnitude of the threat. A
later initiation time would be more favorable, which would give the
airmass more time to beco*e destabilize.

...Ohio Valley...
An upper-level low is forecast to move into the central Plains on
Wednesday as mid-level flow remains from the south-southwest across
the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Ahead of the system, a moist
airmass will be advected northward through the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. Moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon
from western Kentucky northward into southern and central Indiana.
Thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along the
western edge of moderate instability, from far western Kentucky into
eastern Illinois. Under this scenario, the southern part of a
cluster of storms would move northeastward across the Ohio Valley
during the mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z for
Paducah and Indianapolis have MLCAPE peaking near 2500 J/kg, with
0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This would support a
marginal severe threat, with a potential for hail and strong wind
gusts. The severe-weather threat could be of greater magnitude if
more deep-layer shear is realized on Wednesday in the Ohio Valley
than is currently forecast.

..Broyles.. 05/23/2022