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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Ozarks on
Thursday. Mid-level flow ahead of the system should be from the
south-southwest across the southern and central Appalachians. At the
surface, a moist airmass is forecast from the central Gulf Coast
states to the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms will be possible across
much of the moist airmass, with the strongest thunderstorms expected
to develop in the southern Appalachians Thursday afternoon, where
the co*bination of instability and shear is forecast to be
maximized. However, the medium-range models keep most of the moist
airmass weakly unstable through Thursday afternoon, potentially
limiting the magnitude of any severe threat that develops.

On Friday, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the
Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorm development is expected to take place
in areas that warm up sufficiently along and ahead of the front.
Although the models keep instability across most of the Eastern
Seaboard on Friday, a marginal severe threat could develop in areas
that destabilize the most. Further west into the southern and
central Plains on Friday, moisture advection may result in a pocket
of moderate instability by late afternoon.  But the models keep the
airmass capped and minimal convective development is expected.

By Saturday, the moist sector is forecast to advect northward into
parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Although
there is large model spread concerning potential outco*es, some
convective development appears possible Saturday evening into the
overnight period. The GFS has a more favorable solution, suggesting
that a convective co*plex develops during the evening and moves
northeastward across the Dakotas. However, uncertainty is
substantial and the eventual scenario will likely be different than
what is currently forecast.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
Southwest mid-level flow is forecast over the north-central U.S. on
Sunday, with the models driving a cold front southeastward across
the region. Thunderstorm development, with some potentially strong,
will be possible along the front. There is currently a wide spread
on the timing and location of the front by Sunday afternoon, adding
considerable uncertainty to the forecast. On Monday, uncertainty is
magnified due to large differences in the model solutions. Although
there will be potential for organized storms across the
north-central U.S. into the southern and central High Plains,
uncertainty is too great to speculate on a specific scenario.