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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
Strengthening winds across the southwestern CONUS will result in
increasing fire weather concerns from the Four Corners into the
southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. An overall amplification of
the current upper-level flow regime is expected heading into the
middle of the work week, as a strong northwesterly jet begins to
dive into the southern U.S. The approach of the upper jet will act
to deepen a surface low across the southern High Plains, which will
not only augment the regional pressure gradient, but also support a
southward surge of a modest cold front across the OK/TX Panhandles
and northeast NM. The resultant surface pattern will see strong
northwesterly flow across much of the Four Corners and Southwest,
but also an upslope flow regime across northeast NM/southern CO that
will support thunderstorm development late in the afternoon.  

...Four Corners/Southwest...
The deepening surface low across southeast NM/southwest TX will
support sustained winds between 15-25 mph across a broad stretch of
the Four Corners/Southwest region. Flow within the 850-700 mb layer
will be stronger co*pared to previous days, which will support a
higher potential for sustained critical conditions across a broad
area. Short- and medium-range ensemble guidance reflects this idea
with fairly high probabilities for 20+ mph winds and 5-15% RH across
far eastern AZ into central NM Tuesday afternoon. A few locations
may experience brief periods of extremely critical conditions as
winds gust to 30-35 mph with RH values below 10% during peak daytime
heating. The fire weather across the Trans Pecos and Big Bend region
of southwest TX is somewhat conditional due to the potential for
wetting rainfall early Tuesday morning. Elevated conditions are
likely for these regions Tuesday afternoon, and an expansion may be
warranted depending on precipitation totals by Tuesday morning.

...Sacramento Valley...
The north to northwesterly flow regime over northern CA will support
adiabatic drying and warming through the Sacramento Valley Tuesday
afternoon. Ensemble guidance suggests wind speeds will generally be
stronger than previous days due to the better flow aloft. Afternoon
minimum RH values are forecast to fall into the low to mid teens
once again, supporting at least elevated fire weather conditions.

...Northeast New Mexico/Dry Thunderstorms...
Despite some degree of convective overturning during the prior 24
hours, mid-level lapse rates along the eastern Rockies are forecast
to remain somewhat steep (near 7 C/km). Residual boundary-layer
moisture is forecast to remain in place and support upwards of
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE across the High Plains by Tuesday afternoon.
Thunderstorms initiating within the post-frontal upslope-flow regime
will likely reside on the periphery of the richer boundary-layer
moisture with PWAT values near 0.5 inches. While the dry sub-cloud
layer will be somewhat shallow, the limited moisture available for
initial thunderstorms and 20-30 knot storm motions will support a
dry-lightning potential. Fuels across northeast NM and far southern
CO are currently critically dry, and should remain so barring
wetting rainfall late Monday into early Tuesday.

..Moore.. 05/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...