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Mesoscale Discussion 0877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Areas affected...Northern Virginia...eastern
Maryland...Delaware...and New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

Valid 222232Z - 230030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
continues.

SUMMARY...Lines of thunderstorms across northern Virginia and
eastern Pennsylvania/New Jersey will continue to pose a threat for
sporadic damaging winds as they move east towards the Mid-Atlantic
coast over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Broken clusters of thunderstorms have consolidated into
more organized lines over northern VA, eastern MD, and eastern PA
with several wind damage reports noted over the past hour. MRMS
vertically integrated ice, lightning counts, and GOES IR imagery
have all shown a drop off in convective intensity over the past
20-30 minutes with the northern line moving out of PA, which
suggests that the propensity for this convection to produce
widespread wind damage may be waning to a degree in the near-term.
Nonetheless, mostly clear skies ahead of both lines have maintained
surface temperatures in the 80s and steep low-level lapse rates near
8 C/km. Furthermore, the thermodynamic environment across the
Mid-Atlantic region remains supportive of convective maintenance
with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and little inhibition. Consequently,
maintenance of the northern VA line appears probable, and a
re-intensification is possible of the line moving into NJ, both of
which will pose a threat for at least sporadic damaging winds as
they approach the coast over the co*ing hours.

..Moore.. 05/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   39167675 39787601 40167561 40587512 40547453 40417398
            39857406 39257445 38877489 38587501 38347539 37987627
            37767691 37717755 37867804 38357799 38897720 39167675