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Mesoscale Discussion 0861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Areas affected...Western to middle Tennessee and far southwest
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257...

Valid 212204Z - 220000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257
continues.

SUMMARY...A loosely organized MCS with an attendant wind/hail risk
may propagate into portions of middle Tennessee and far southwest
Kentucky over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest reflectivity and velocity data from regional
WSR-88Ds show new convection developing along an outflow boundary
from a prior co*plex of thunderstorms across portions of far
southwest KY and northwest TN. This cluster of storms has shown
signs of a balance updraft/downdraft convergence zone over the past
hour and has begun to propagate to the east towards parts of middle
TN and far southwest KY. Weak deep-layer shear over the region and
individual cell motions to the northeast will limit the forward
propagating speed of this MCS, but a favorable thermodynamic
environment (featuring 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and nearly 8 C/km 0-3
km lapse rates) resides ahead of the co*plex, which should maintain
the cold-pool driven eastward progression. Consequently, the risk
for severe hail and wind may extend just beyond the eastern extent
of the current bounds of WW 257 along the TN/KY border over the next
couple of hours.

..Moore.. 05/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36558818 36788790 36968739 36918663 36628642 36298644
            36008671 35858707 35768752 35808812 35918858 36048870
            36328868 36468823 36558818