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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA TO WESTERN
TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions remain likely this afternoon across
a large swath of the Southwest. A broad upper-level trough is noted
in early-morning water vapor imagery over the northwestern CONUS. An
elongated cold front, currently pushing southward through the
inter-mountain West and the central Plains, will help deepen the
trough over the next 12-24 hours. This will have the effect of
increasing mid-level winds over the Southwest as well as bolstering
surface pressure falls along/ahead of the cold front across the
southern High Plains by late afternoon. Consequently, strengthening
pressure-gradient winds from the lower CO River valley into the
southern High Plains will promote widespread fire weather concerns. 

...Southwest to the Southern High Plains...
Latest fuel guidance and drought indices continues to show
widespread dry conditions with receptive fuels across much of the
Southwest and southern High Plains. Early-morning surface
observations across AZ, NM, and western TX show poor overnight RH
recovery with single-digit to low teen RH values noted. While modest
RH recovery is probable across parts of southwest AZ (via weak
moisture advection from Baja California), most locations will see
5-15% RH values by early afternoon. Widespread sustained winds
between 15-25 mph are possible as early as 18 UTC, and will likely
peak during the late afternoon hours. Wind gusts between 30-40 mph
are probable across the Critical risk area, and may support periods
of extremely critical conditions across the southern High Plains
where 30-35 mph gusts may coincide with 5-10% RH. While forecast
confidence remains high for most of the region, the southward
progression of the cold front through the afternoon remains somewhat
uncertain and may limit the northeastern extent of fire weather
concerns across northeast NM and west TX.

...Southern Nevada...
A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing
southward across NV. Despite cooler post-frontal air, mostly clear
skies this afternoon will support sufficient diurnal warming/drying
for RH values to fall into the low teens. Gusty 15-20 mph winds
behind the front will support elevated fire weather concerns this
afternoon.

...Sacramento Valley...
Northerly post-frontal winds are already being observed through the
Sacramento Valley. This downslope flow regime will persist through
the day and support RH reductions down to near 15% by late
afternoon. Fuels through most of the valley have begun to cure
(especially through the foothills per latest ERC analyses), which
will support the fire weather threat this afternoon.

..Moore.. 05/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...