SPC MD 828
[html]MD 0828 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Areas affected...southern Missouri into southern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 191717Z - 191945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A corridor of tornado, damaging wind and hail is likely to
develop across much of southern Missouri by 19Z, and into southern
Illinois by late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Storms are beginning to form around the southern
periphery of the MCV circulation near Springfield MO and extending
west to Sarcoxie, and may be the beginnings of the severe event.
Visible imagery shows clearing downstream across southern MO, and
instability will only increase throughout the day as the previously
rain-cooled air modifies. Midlevel lapse rates are steep and will
result in vigorous updrafts. Wind fields associated with the MCV
will enhance shear and supercell potential, with 50 kt flow between
2-3 km. 0-1 SRH in excess of 100 m2/s2 will be sufficient for a
tornado threat. Damaging winds with a bow echo or QLCS will also be
possible if storm mode beco*es more linear. As such, a watch will
likely be needed soon.
..Jewell/Hart.. 05/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38339122 38648986 38628923 38428876 38158856 37888843
37628852 37298883 36958973 36759065 36739267 36829357
37079385 37369385 37569358 37989251 38339122
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Source: SPC MD 828 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0828.html)
Topic: SPC MD 828 (Read 47 times)
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